Replacement Candidate
There are elections where we replace a sitting president. How did it turn out?
The 2024 presidential election has two nominees with an average age of around 80. (Donald Trump turns 78 today, June 14 – be sure to celebrate by flying a flag).
The 159 years of life between the two contenders is well past the average life expectancy of 75 years. It begs whether one or another will make it to the November election.
President Biden is all in on his reelection. Despite the insane calls for him to only be a one-term president, there is a strong possibility that the 81-year-old might not make it through another campaign, let alone another four years. You may disagree with the word “strong,” but I don’t.
On the other hand, if former president and convicted felon Donald Trump were to win, he’d enter office a year older than Ronald Regan was when he left office. He’s also extremely overweight, and he eats his steaks well done and with ketchup.
Americans who are at least 65 years old are the fastest-growing segment of the country's 333 million people. So, if you hear anyone over 65 complaining about the choices, be sure to point out that everyone in their age bracket likely helped make this happen.
What happens if, God forbid, we lose a nominee, and someone else inserts themselves into the race? How do we think that will turn out?
Well, we do have a few examples of this happening, and this brings us to the latest election rankings, in which sitting presidents sat it out while other candidates stepped in. You be the judge if it turned out okay.
Let's dive in.
27: The Presidential Election of 1908
Election Date: November 4, 1908
The Candidates:
Popular Republican President Teddy Roosevelt told everyone he would be a one-term president when he ran in 1904. He wanted to keep his word, so he pushed for his Secretary of War, Ohio man William Taft, to be the nominee, which he did, beating out guys with the names of Knox, Shaw, and Cannon.
The Democrats decided that three times would be the charm and nominated Willaim Jennings Bryan, who lost to William McKinley in 1896 and again in 1900. By the time 1908 rolled around, Bryan had also lost most of his hair.
Major Issue of the Day:
Roosevelt resolved all the issues the country faced around this time. He could have done even more extraordinary things had he not cornered himself with the one-term pledge.
The Winner:
Legacy.
Every president wants to continue their legacy, even if that means having someone else do it.
Taft and Roosevelt were close until about four years later when Roosevelt decided he wanted to run for president again. We saw what happened in that election when I ranked it at number 50.
So, legacies can be short-lived.
The States in the Electoral College:
46. Oklahoma entered the Union in 1907. Arizona and New Mexico had not yet become states in the continental United States.
The Electoral College had 483 members, and the winner needed 242 votes.
Taft took 29 states but lost Nevada, Colorado, and Nebraska, which Roosevelt had carried four years earlier. Looking at the electoral college breakdown, you can cut the country in half and see red in the north and blue in the south.
Taft defeated Bryan by over 1.2 million votes, securing 51% of the electorate.
The 2021 OKH Presidential Ranking:
Taft came in at 23. I nailed this ranking with actual presidential historians. There are times when I know what I’m talking about!
Why Did I Rank it Here:
I feel bad for Bryan as much as someone can feel bad for a racist. But I never lost an election, let alone three in a row.
We are unlikely to see another president voluntarily step down or not run for reelection in our lifetime. But we can never discount those who ran and lost only to run again and think they could never win. Except, of course, if your names are Henry Clay, William Jennings Bryan, or Adlai Stevenson.
Let’s dive in.
26: The Presidential Election of 1968
Election Date: November 5, 1968
The Candidates:
President Lyndon B. Johnson got things rolling on the domestic front early in his presidency and his reelection in 1964.
But then everything came apart due to the Vietnam War.
This caused a whirlwind of chaos. Vice President Hubert Humphrey became the nominee, mainly because New York Senator Bobby Kennedy was gunned down in a hotel kitchen that June.
The Republicans were reeling after the beatdown Johnson gave Goldwater in 1964. So who better to look toward but a revamped Richard Nixon, who lost the California governor’s race just two years earlier? The answer to this was, apparently, no one.
But it worked.
Major Issue of the Day:
The Vietnam War dominated the country. Also, it had been twenty years since the baseball team in Cleveland won the World Series.
The Winner:
Resurrection.
Far from a Christ-like figure, Nixon spectacularly resurrected his political career.
It shows that any horrible candidate has a serious shot at winning the White House under favorable conditions and a strong message. We see this right now, where Trump and Biden are tied in polls despite objective reviews showing that Biden has done exceptionally well. For some reason, Biden can’t message properly, whereas Trump is direct in what he will do, like putting all drug dealers to death.
The States in the Electoral College:
50. Washington, D.C., did all it could to prevent Richard Nixon's victory by voting for Humphrey.
The Electoral College had 538 members, and the winner needed 270 votes.
Third-party candidate George Wallace won five states: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. He received 13% of the vote and 46 electoral votes. Remember, this was the guy who promoted segregation forever just five years earlier.
The 2021 OKH Presidential Ranking:
You can read where I ranked Nixon when I ranked his reelection last month.
Why Did I Rank it Here:
If you could live in any year you wanted, I would live in 1968. It was so fascinating. I remember thinking how terrible 2020 was, but then I was reminded about how people felt about 1968. So much going was going on.
Okay, what do you think about replacement candidates? Good? Bad? In different?
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads who graciously subscribe to Okay History. I hope you have fun with your families and get showered with socks and ties.
My father passed away nine years ago, and Father’s Day is always a little difficult because it was one of the few times during the year I spoke to my Dad (We had a good relationship; we just didn’t talk a lot). I miss my Dad very much. Mostly because I wish he had met Anonymous. He would have loved her.
I am excited to spend time with my in-laws this weekend, as they will be in town! Anonymous’s Dad is a good dude. I am not getting him socks or ties, however.
Have a great weekend, everyone. I’ll be back on Monday, and I appreciate your continued support of OKH.
Okay,
Chris
Don’t be draft age when you go back to 1968. You might find yourself in Vietnam.
Chris, I've been saving your posts for a few weeks because I've been too busy to read them, but I'm glad I took the time to open this one today. The last part about your father warmed my heart. Have a good weekend, my friend. <3