Electoral Pie

Ask Me Anything is back - and we predict who will win the 2024 presidential election

We haven’t had an Ask Me Anything edition since April.

So much has happened since then that will shape our history.  

First, President Biden managed to usurp democracy by withdrawing from the presidential election while continuing to be president. This is pretty amazing for a guy half the country thinks has been asleep during this entire time.

Vice President Kamala Harris took the reigns as the nominee. Things got so bad for the former president and convicted felon Donald Trump that two different people either shot at him or wanted to shoot him. His running mate, the real-life Tin Man from The Wizard of Oz, said that was a badge of honor because no one has tried to knock off the vice president. Never mind that the Tin Man called Trump Hitler once. I guess Hitler was fantastic because people wanted to assassinate him like a million times.

What else? I went to the beach, I went to Ireland, I got a new job, and we ranked some elections. We’ve been busy!

Okay, so we are back to Ask Me Anything. If you are new here, this is a feature in Okay History where loyal readers submit questions looking for insight that you will not get from experts or people who generally know things. Instead, you get insight that is best described as okay. But you are here, and I am grateful.

My friend Jen came up with our next question, or at least I’m attributing it to her. We came to this conclusion during our latest happy hour. Since the beginning of COVID, Jen and I have had regular happy hours, first in the alley that separated our apartments and then at the house where Anonyomous lets me live, which is awfully nice of her.

Jen and I have maintained this great tradition for the past four years. Even though she’s a Detroit Tigers fan and refuses to join my beer league softball team (she’s a national college softball champion who claims to have “knee problems.”). Whatever, Jen is great.

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The election is less than a month away, and the pundits—the people who managed to get jobs looking at polls and then writing about them—have said it is very close.

But Jenn wants to know, “Chris, who do you think will win the 2024 election?”

That’s a fantastic question that I think I attributed to you after beer number seven.

Let’s dive in.

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Sometimes, Jen and I eat during our happy hours. Once, Anonymous let us order pizza, and we got that Detriot-style pizza, which was gross. I blame the place that made it, not the style itself. I wanted my friend to enjoy pizza from her hometown city, and I wanted to have pizza made with New York in mind. So we got both!

But it got me thinking - fighting over politics is a lot like fighting over a pizza.

You can fight over how to slice a pizza, how thick or thin it should be, and, of course, the toppings. Where you get the pizza is also essential; is it from a chain or the hip place that no one in your neighborhood knows about yet? You can fight all day about your pizza allegiances like you defend your political gang colors.

Elections are just as messy as pizza. You get one of those Neapolitan pizzas, and the cheese slides right off as soon as you pick it up, just like a tight congressional race where it’s crazy versus sane, and you are trying to figure out why sane isn’t staying on top, like the cheese on your pizza should. What’s going on here? Who makes a pizza that is like soup in the middle?

There are 538 electoral votes in a presidential election. Think of it as 538 slices up for grabs, and the winner must secure at least 270 of them to claim the White House. The variety of pizza and states will make this exercise…interesting.

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It’s generally accepted that there are 14 states, plus Washington, DC, where Vice President Harris will win the electoral votes handily. Former president and convicted felon Donald Trump has 20 states locked up.

That puts the electoral college at 191-125 to Harris.

Five states lean toward Harris, and four lean toward Trump. Don’t check my math, but that leaves seven states considered toss-ups—like tossing up a pizza to see if it comes down correctly.

But if everything falls into place, Harris will be sitting with 226 electoral votes, and the guy who thought you could inject disinfectant to rid the body of COVID would have 219.

That means the race for 93 is on. Let’s look at the swing states, and I’ll tell you what will happen based on nothing. For reference, I was utterly wrong about the 2016 and 1992 elections, but I got the 1984 election right, and I was only eight.

Swing States – Slices that Never Taste the Same

Let’s begin with Jen’s home state, Michigan. It has lost one electoral vote since 2020, leaving it with 15. But when you are racing to 93, picking up 15 slices is critical to winning.

Detriot-style pizza is good. It has depth. You must commit to it, but like a Michigan winter, you can only take it for a few minutes, and then it’s time to move on. 

The Wolverine state has been a reliable Democratic state, having voted for Republican candidates once out of the last eight elections since 1992. That one time was 2016. I doubt that Trump can reinvent 2016.

I see Kamala winning here based on the twisted data set.

Next, we have Wisconsin, where cheese is king. Since 1998, the Cheese State has gone Democratic in eight out of nine elections.

Wisconsin has ten votes—there has been no change since 2020. I give Kamala Harris the win here because the Brewers never should have lost to the New York Mets.

Georgia and North Carolina have been surprising recent Democratic pickups in elections that I am cherry-picking to make my point. Carolina has a Democratic governor, and the Republican candidate for governor this cycle is a lunatic. Georgia ran its own lunatic for Senator the last cycle, and President Biden won the Peach State in 2020, only the second time since 1992 that a Republican lost.

I’m giving both states to Kamala Harris because she recently turned black, and that has to be a game changer here because, on top of that, she’s not a lunatic.

Arizona and Nevada are up for grabs, and I’m pretty sure no one eats pizza out there, so there’s nothing to argue about – Kamala Harris also wins here.

These four states total 53 slices, which means Kamala Harris will have a pizza party at the White House in 2025.

We can’t bring up swing states and forget about Pennsylvania. I bet in Philly, they put Wiz on their pizza, and in Pittsburgh, they probably dump French fries all over it. Either way, it’s gross. But they can’t figure themselves out in the Quaker state, and confusion plays right into Kamala Harris’s hands because she is so steady.  Pennsylvania goes blue in 2024.

Make Pizza Great Again

If you doubt my mediocre insight into how this election will finish, let’s look at it from the other side.

We will see if Trump is a god because he must pull off a miracle to win this thing. As a guy who failed as a casino owner, he must pull a straight flush. You don’t have to go by analysis of the swing states I highlight above to know there is trouble in MAGA land. Texas and Florida have been reliant supporters of the GOP and have consistently given their 70 electoral votes. However, both states look like ripe tomatoes for the taking in 2024.

According to people I know and trust, early voting returns in Florida are showing an uptick in Democratic ballots, telling us that the New York-style pizza that is Kamala Harris is the best, followed by the square-cut pizza I ate back home in Ohio, a state which no one cares about anymore because they lost their damn minds.

While Texas may be further away from flipping, at least Texas doesn’t appear to be dumping their BBQ sauce over their pizza and telling you it’s the greatest.

So, Jen, I think the 2024 presidential election will be a blowout -  like you had too much pizza. Or, at the very least, you will have heartburn.

319- 219, Harris wins.

I hope this in-depth analysis of who I think will win has been helpful.

Do you agree? Let me know in the comments.

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Hurricane Milton wreaked havoc in Florida this week. Many friends and family reside in Florida, along both coasts and the middle. This horrific storm comes on the heels of another brutal hurricane, and many friends and family in North Carolina are hurting right now.

If you are interested in reading, the footnotes include a prayer for the victims of these storms.¹

It’s a long weekend ahead. We have lots going on. I’ll be back on Monday. I send you all my love and gratitude for reading.

Stay safe, and I hope your loved ones are okay.

Okay,

Chris

Blue finally feels 100% and ready to party this weekend!

1. Gracious and loving God,
In the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, we come before You with heavy hearts, lifting up all those who have been affected by this storm. We pray for those who have lost their homes, livelihoods, and loved ones, and for all who are suffering in its aftermath.

God of mercy, wrap Your arms of comfort around the grieving, give strength to those who are weary, and provide shelter for the displaced. May the outpouring of compassion from neighbors and strangers alike remind us that we are all bound together in Your love.

In this time of trial, grant wisdom and resilience to the leaders and responders working tirelessly to rebuild lives and restore hope. Help us to see, in the midst of destruction, the seeds of new beginnings, and give us the courage to be instruments of Your peace and healing.

With the intercession of Saint Jude and all the saints, may we trust in Your provident care, knowing that You are always present, even in the storms of our lives.

We ask this in the name of Your Son, Jesus Christ,
Who calms the seas and leads us to safe shores.

Amen.